那一场呼啸而过的青春
NZ’s push for joint statement on China missile test falls flat amid growing Pacific Islands autonomy_我的网站

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As foreign ministers and senior representatives from Pacific nations convened in Suva for the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) to discuss key regional issues, New Zealand's foreign minister reportedly pushed to secure a joint statement condemning China's missile tests in July, however, his effort ultimately fell flat. A Chinese expert described the outcome as a clear rebuke to Canberra and Wellington's ingrained habit of speaking for the Pacific, saying the two countries must come to terms with a shifting reality: Pacific Island states are increasingly unwilling to let Australia and New Zealand dictate who their friends, foes and perceived security threats should be.
Pacific Island foreign ministers failed to agree on Friday to a joint response to China's missile launch in July, with further discussions expected at the Pacific leaders meeting at the end of August, said New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters, according to Reuters.
According to a report from Radio New Zealand, there has not been a unanimous statement from Pacific nations about China's test-launch in July, and Peters said New Zealand had been pushing for one. Peters claimed that the Pacific missed an opportunity not to issue a joint statement soon after China's launch.
Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong said before the meeting that she hoped China took note of the "very clear response" already sent from the Pacific about the test, according to AFP.
Peters' push for a joint PIF statement on China's missile tests, together with Wong's remarks, are less about technical security concerns than an effort to turn their own anxieties about China into a regional agenda and pressure Beijing under the forum's collective banner. His description of Pacific Island countries' refusal to single out China as a "missed opportunity" also reveals little respect for their independent judgment, Chen Hong, director of the New Zealand Studies Centre, East China Normal University, told the Global Times.
The result is a clear rebuke to Canberra and Wellington's long-standing habit of arrogantly "speaking for" the Pacific, as island states are increasingly unwilling to let Australia and New Zealand decide who their friends, foes or security threats should be, said Chen Hong.
The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy said on July 6 that one of its strategic nuclear submarines successfully launched a strategic missile toward relevant high seas of the Pacific Ocean, which landed precisely within the designated waters. China notified relevant countries in advance of the test launch, a move that demonstrates the openness and transparency of the Chinese armed forces, Chen Xi, a spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defense, said at a press conference on July 7.
Chen Hong also noted that Peters' recent China-related rhetoric has become increasingly populist and hawkish as elections approach in New Zealand. "Such an approach risks undermining New Zealand's long-standing reputation for pragmatic, independent, and rational diplomacy," Chen Hong said.
In July, during a parliamentary debate on New Zealand's Covid-19 pandemic response, Peters, who is also leader of the populist New Zealand First party, told a Chinese-born lawmaker to "go back to your own country" while mocking his English proficiency. His remarks drew wide criticism in New Zealand.
Yet Australia and New Zealand continued to amplify missile-related issues and great-power rivalry, pushing the "China threat" narrative to the center of the regional agenda while sidelining the priorities that matter most to Pacific Island nations, said Chinese analysts.
Chen Hong noted that for island states, the most urgent concerns are not geopolitical competition but everyday challenges: climate change, energy security, development financing, infrastructure and economic resilience. By shifting the focus from these concerns to strategic rivalry among major powers, Australia and New Zealand risk distorting the region's real priorities and undermining the aspirations of Pacific Island countries.
According to an introduction on the forum website, "The Forum's Pacific Vision is for a resilient region of peace, harmony, security, social inclusion and prosperity, so that all Pacific people can lead free, healthy, and productive lives."
At the opening of the meeting, Rick Houenipwela, foreign minister of the Solomon Islands and chair of the meeting, said that the Pacific's agenda must continue to be "conceived by the Pacific, shaped by the Pacific and only by the Pacific," according to Reuters.
Chen Hong said Pacific Island nations have made their position clear: differences with China do not mean signing up to the strategic agendas of Australia and New Zealand. A growing number of island countries refuse to be trapped in the black-and-white binary choice of siding with either China or the West.
If Canberra and Wellington keep pushing rhetoric beyond the regional consensus, they risk undermining the very institution they claim to support. The PIF's strength lies not in issuing confrontational statements, but in preserving Pacific unity. Turning that consensus into a tool for pressuring China would erode the forum's cohesion and weaken its central role in the region, said Chen Hong.
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二 | 一次关键的撞击 报道称,即将举行的测试属于美国国家航空航天局(NASA)的双小行星重定向测试(DART),旨在用一颗小型航天器撞击小行星,测试它对小行星轨迹的实际影响。科学家们希望,如果未来有一颗危险的小行星威胁地球,类似DART这样的任务可以避免灾难的发生。NASA科学任务理事会副署长托马斯・祖布臣在12日举行的新闻发布会上说:“这些物体(小行星)在太空中飞驰,也在地球上影响了我们的历史。”“我们实施的一系列新任务正在帮助我们以前所未有的方式理解和量化这些威胁,DART是第一个尝试在实验中真正应对威胁对象的任务。” 2021年11月,搭载DART任务探测器的“猎鹰9号”火箭升空,开始长达10个月的太空旅行。DART选择了一颗名为Dimorphos的小行星,它的直径约160米,“像发条一样精准地”以11小时55分钟为周期围绕另一颗名为Didymos、直径800米的近地小行星运行。这两颗小行星距离地球约1100万公里,不会对地球构成任何威胁。按照NASA的计算,自动售货机大小的探测器以每秒6公里的速度对小行星实施撞击后,后者的轨道周期将缩短约10分钟。为确保安全,这次撞击测试的地点远离地球,NASA精确测算了目标小行星的轨道特性,但对它的材质等更多信息了解得并不充分。因此探测器配备了自主导航系统,它将利用摄像头获得的图像自行选择撞击位置,并不间断地把整个过程传回地面指挥中心。为何需要实际测试 报道提到,尽管说起来简单,但撞击后的效果如何,还取决于很多因素。首先是小行星的成分——它到底是由坚固的岩石还是松散的碎石堆组成?DART任务观测小组的负责人克里斯蒂娜·托马斯表示,如果是前者,那么撞击效果就如同在太空中玩台球游戏,“通过简单的物理方程就能推算结果”;但如果它是由数以千计的碎石组成,预测撞击的后果要困难得多。为了观测撞击的效果,NASA动用了詹姆斯·韦布空间望远镜和哈勃空间望远镜以及4个地面天文台轮流进行监测。

三 | 托马斯表示,如果Dimorphos小行星是由碎石堆组成,这些望远镜应该能在撞击后数小时内捕捉到它的图像。此外,2024年欧洲航天局“赫拉”号航天器将造访这两颗小行星,进一步观察此次测试的影响。约翰斯·霍普金斯大学应用物理实验室的DART项目协调负责人南希·查博特在新闻发布会上说:“我们想知道撞击Dimorphos会发生什么,但更重要的是,我们想了解这对未来可能的应用意味着什么。”报道称,与未来真正的小行星偏转任务相比,这次测试的规模非常小,但技术难度是一样的。据欧洲航天局测算,目前约有2.7万颗近地小行星,其中1200颗有撞击地球的可能性。NASA表示,直径超过1000米的大型小行星撞击地球,足以造成恐龙灭绝等级的严重破坏,但它们更容易被观察到,目前未发现可能撞击地球的此类小行星;而体积较小的小行星不足以对地球造成太大的破坏,大部分在穿越地球大气层时就被烧毁了。因此真正对地球构成威胁的小行星,直径通常在140米到1000米之间,它们更难被发现,但如果撞击地球仍可能造成大规模破坏。

四 | 英国《金融时报》称,对于这类中等大小的小行星,DART将是人类最佳的应对方案。虽然在科幻电影中经常出现用核武器摧毁小行星的场面,但爆炸可能产生危险的太空岩石碎片,反而会成倍增加对地球的威胁。因此,需要用足够的力度撞击小行星使其转向,同时又不能太过猛烈,必须控制其产生的岩石碎片数量和方向,这需要借助DART任务为行星防御计划提供更多数据。

五 | 中国也有“行星防御计划” 据介绍,DART所测试的只是行星防御计划的手段之一。总体而言,行星防御是借助核爆、动能撞击、激光烧蚀、离子束牵引、引力拖曳、质量驱动等各种主动手段,破坏小行星的结构或者偏转小行星的轨道。

六 | 在今年4月24日的中国航天日当天,中国国家航天局副局长吴艳华首次向外界披露,我国将着手组建近地小行星防御系统,以应对近地小行星撞击的威胁,为保护地球和人类安全贡献中国力量。吴艳华表示,中国首先要完善建立地基天基对小行星的监测预警系统,不仅要编目,关键是分析判断哪些是重危型;要对是否有可能解除这些威胁进行技术研究和攻关。在完善对小行星探测能力的同时,中国也要着手组建近地小行星防御系统。吴艳华透露,未来中国将组织编制近地小行星防御发展规划,开发近地小天体防御仿真推演软件,并组织开展基本流程推演。

七 | 他表示,要争取在“十四五”末期或者2025年、2026年实施一次对某一颗有威胁的小行星进行抵近观测,实施就近撞击,并就改变其轨道进行技术实验,为未来人类应对小行星等地外天体对地球家园的威胁,作出中国的新贡献。吴艳华还建议布局小天体防御关键技术研究,开展小天体防御任务关键技术验证,建立小天体防御任务地面模拟实验室,并适时启动实施我国主导的小天体主动安全防御任务。此外,我国还应加强近地小行星防御基础研究。
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